The D-Core: A Deeper Look

The Edmonton Oilers have had a plethora of problems with their blue line over the years. Lack of depth, little offensive output, and unreliable defensive zone coverage to name a few. Ever since Chris Pronger left in the summer of 2006, the Oilers have lacked what would be considered an elite NHL defenceman. Oilers management thought the likes of Lubomir Visnovsky or Sheldon Souray could fit the bill, or even Justin Schultz would one day develop into the type of player the franchise needed. For different reasons, they all never panned out.

Two seasons ago, it seemed as though the Oilers had finally found the right group of guys to make up their top 7 on the back end. The team was still missing a bona fide number one d-man, however the defensive core as a group was a well-oiled machine. Though it was different from the "ideal" NHL d-core (still missing a top "elite" player), Chiarelli managed to put together a group of d-men that blended together nicely.

The tandem of Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson was a top NHL pair. With Klefbom's offensive prowess and Larsson's rugged stay-at-home style, they were minute eaters and a reliable pair. The two lefties on the second line, Andrej Sekera and Kris Russell provided solid secondary minutes, playing a simple yet effective style and rounded out a strong top 4 group. The bottom pair was a mix of Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning, Eric Gryba, and Brandon Davidson (who was traded at the deadline for David Desharnais). The mix of those guys could play solid minutes, contributing on the penalty kill and being somewhat reliable in their own end.

Fast forward a season later, and the wheels completely came off. Injuries were a problem, as Andrej Sekera was left out of the lineup until Christmastime. Oscar Klefbom struggled through shoulder problems and did not look like the 38 point scorer from the season prior. Peter Chiarelli knew of Sekera's injury issues, however failed to address them in the offseason, believing that the three aforementioned bottom guys could jump and play top 4 minutes. Well he was right, as Nurse made significant strides last season, however the rest of the d-core struggled out of the gate. A crippling start to the season which left the Oilers handcuffed and out of the playoff race early in the season.

So this upcoming season will prove to be a telling season for the Oilers d-core. Can they return to the form of the 2016-17 season in which they looked like a legitimate group, or are they the underachieving d-core that we saw in this past season? Time will tell, but let's take a deeper look at each individual and what the franchise and fans should expect from Oilers defencemen.

First, let's compare the Oil and their top 4 to other teams in the NHL, based off their cap hits and point totals from the 2017-2018 season.

* indicates a 5th defenceman that put up a considerable amount of points by a defenceman for their respective team

~ indicates a player on their entry-level deal.

- top 4 was categorized by a players average time-on-ice per game over the regular season.

Before we get to the Oil, let's start off with a couple notables.

The Nashville Predators have perhaps the best top 4 in the league, as they ranked 1st in points last season and come in at 8th highest combined salary. They have some really good contracts with Josi at a $4.0 million cap hit and Ekholm at $3.75 million. Subban has the big one at $9.0 million. Ellis needs a new contract after this upcoming season.

Anaheim had the luxury of having Montour on his entry-level deal, however he needs a new contract. Manson's salary goes from under a million to a $4.1million cap hit this season, so after those deals their combined salary will jump up the leaderboard heavily.

The Kings' points were well distributed amongst their top 4 blue-liners, and they had the 17th highest combined salary. Not too shabby. Doughty's $4 million increase comes into play in 2019-2020.

Detroit has some ugly salaries on their back end, and ranking tied for 29th in the league in points doesn't look too great either. This doesn't even count Niklas Kronwall's $4.75 million cap hit either.

Calgary had the highest paid top 4 group in the NHL. They had decent production, good enough for 14th in the NHL last season. Not ideal for the amount they are paying though. The NHL's leading defenceman goal scorer, Dougie Hamilton, has been replaced by Noah Hanifin (still needs a contract), so it should be interesting to see if their blue line group can live up to their large salary sum.

Alright, now on to Edmonton. 23rd highest salary and 26th highest point totals. The salary also comes in with Nurse on his ELC, so take it with a grain of salt. Bottom line, this is not a good look, especially with more than half of the combined salary going to Larsson and Russell who are not really looked upon for their point totals, but rather their defensive game.

Two seasons ago, Nurse would be replaced by Sekera, putting them somewhere into the top 15 in combined salary for a top 4 d-core. If all goes according to plan and projections come true, based on time-on-ice, this year's top 4 should be Klefbom, Larsson, Nurse, Sekera. I think Oil fans would be happy to see Klefbom and Larsson back together if they can return to their form from two years ago. However, Nurse and Larsson served as a decent pair last year finishing +15 and +10 respectively. Whichever way you cut it, those are your top three guys in ice time.

A healthy Sekera will have him take the top 4 spot. An emergence of Matt Benning could help him claim some more minutes, especially as a right-handed shot. Not many are looking for Kris Russell to take up too many minutes, even though he is capable of playing both sides as a lefty. One or a combination of Ethan Bear, Kevin Gravel and Evan Bouchard will fill out the remaining bottom spots.

So what can management and Oilers fans really expect from their blue line this upcoming season?

Oscar Klefbom - $4.167 million cap hit

2016-17 - 82GP -12G - 26A - 38P - +7 - 16PP Points - 22:22 ATOI

2017-18 - 66GP - 5G - 16A - 21P - -12 - 6PP Points - 22:51 ATOI

An increased average time on ice was due to the injured Sekera which made Klefbom the go-to guy on the left side for the first half of last season. Nurse stepped up to alleviate the workload, but it was still too much for the Swedish defenceman battling shoulder problems. These shoulder issues also crippled his offensive game, as evident with his decline in point and powerplay point totals. The injury took away his biggest threat: his shot, and it wasn't always pretty.

One thing is for certain, the Oilers desperately need offensive help from the back end; and Klefbom has to be the player to supply that. He has proved that he can do it before, especially two seasons ago.

Those are just a few examples of howbig of a threat he was from the point. The franchise and Oilers fans everywhere would love to see him return to this player in the upcoming season. He needs to be better in his own zone as well, which has always been his biggest downfall as a player (besides the injury troubles). They also need him to be effective with Connor and Leon in overtime, like he was in this game-winner against Arizona this year:

If Klef can replicate the offensive numbers he put up in 2016-17, then this contract becomes a steal. If injuries continue to be a problem, than who knows what is ahead for the former 19th overall pick. If he can prove that he is the Oilers number 1 defenceman and a top pair NHLer, then the future looks great for him and the squad. He had a long offseason to recover from shoulder surgery and should hopefully be firing on all cylinders when he returns to Edmonton in September. I expect him to return to the 30+ point player we have seen in the past.

Adam Larsson - $4.167 million cap hit

2016-17 - 79GP - 4G - 15A - 19P - +21 - 20:09 ATOI

2017-18 - 63GP - 4G - 9A - 13P - +10 - 21:56 ATOI

Like Klefbom, Larsson saw a rise in ice-time due to the injury of Sekera. Larsson is not depended upon for his offensive game. Instead, I look more at his +/- for a player of his style. Analyzing a player like this, I believe it is important for Adam to be in the plus category. Containing the opposition (specifically their top players), moving the puck up to the forwards, skating it out of trouble, or being steady at the offensive blue line are all attributes you look for in a player like this. He's never going to be the flashy defenceman making slick plays, which is fine. But a player like Larsson has to take care of the puck, which isn't always the case:

His winger is feet away from him, but he elects to rim the puck leading to a goal only a few seconds later. Plays like this cannot happen. You remember this doozie?

Neither of these plays are just on him, bad communication and bad puck-luck play a role. Nonetheless he needs to be a top-pair, shut-down, steady, and consistent defenceman.

Larsson tends to make questionable decisions from time-to-time. His decision making needs some work, and I think it will help having a consistent d-partner for a longer period of time, much like he had with Klefbom in his first year with the team. When you have a player like Adam, it doesn't hurt when he can chip in with the occasional goal. Some of the best defensive cores (Nashville, Minnesota) have d-cores in which all of the players are not afraid to jump into the play and be an offensive threat. Larsson can do this and has displayed some shades of this. No one is asking for him to put up 30 points, but he can chip in here and there. This was a beauty in game 1 against Anaheim in 2017.

I expect much of the same we've seen from Larsson over the past two seasons. With a bit more consistency, he can develop into a solid top-pair defenceman.

Darnell Nurse - RFA

2016-17 - 44GP - 5G - 6A - 11P - even+/- - 17:01 ATOI

2017-18 - 82GP - 6G - 20A - 26P - +15 - 22:15 ATOI

Many people in the hockey world say it takes 3 years in the NHL for a defenceman to fully develop. This may hold true for Nurse as he proved this past season that he can handle a top 4 position on a NHL club. His stats increased across the board, and was the only reliable defenceman on a nightly basis for the team last year. He gained some confidence in his offensive game last year as well:

So what's next for Darnell? Hard to say. He will most likely receive a bridge deal contract in the coming weeks. Which makes sense, considering his ceiling as an NHL defenceman is somewhat unknown. Was last season a peak for him? Or could he blossom into a top pair two-way d-man capable of putting up 40+ points? Oilers faithful will hope the latter, but it is still early to tell. Nurse will still only be 23 years old at the start of next season, so he has many more years to develop.

A big question for Darnell is who he will play with. In 2016-17 he spent much of his time with Matt Benning and Eric Gryba. With his improved game and heightened responsibility this past season, he got most of his minutes with Larsson. With a rejuvenated Klefbom, my guess is you see Nurse on a pair with Matt Benning to start the year. I'll be interested to see how many points Nurse can put up in his 4th NHL season.

Matt Benning - $1.9 million cap hit

2016-17 - 62GP - 3G - 12A - 15PTS - +8 - 3PP points - 16:37 ATOI

2017-18 - 73GP - 6G - 15A - 21PTS - +5 - 2PP points - 17:17 ATOI

This is a player that I think is important to the franchise, especially in this upcoming season. If Russell and Sekera prove that they are an efficient duo, and Larsson and Klefbom can reunite their magic once again, Nurse is going to need a partner to play in the top 4 with him. Benning, at a $1.9 million cap hit, could be that guy. He has shown signs of greatness during his time here....

And signs of not so great..

But back to the concept of three years of NHL experience to develop a defenceman - this will be Matt's third season with the team and in the NHL. His stats improved across the board, except for plus/minus and his one powerplay point decrease. There is no reason he can't continue to develop and be the number 4 defenceman the Oilers need. If Benning remains stagnant, it could create problems for the team. Sekera and/or Russell may need to play top 4 minutes, or even a player like Ethan Bear or Kevin Gravel will have to come in and play some time that neither are prepared for. I really want to believe in this player, because I think he is a quintessential defenceman in today's game. Although lacking some speed and quickness, Benning has a sufficient mix of strength, skill, grit, and hockey IQ. He does have some offensive upside and there is room in his game for this to flourish, as shown here in some examples:

He has some pretty impressive offensive vision:

I really like this one, with the fake bomb - dish to the wing on the PP:

He can lay the bod too:

Another example, this absolute gem on Corey Perry in the playoffs:

Like most young players, and especially defencemen, he has some problems with his game. Like we saw in the earlier clip with Winnipeg, he tends to try to do too much from time to time. Another one of his flaws is his gap control. He sometimes gets lost on the rush when opposition attacks, backing in too far towards his goalie:

Like Larsson's bad plays, these are not completely on Matt. With a different coaching staff and ideally a consistent d-partner, Benning can hopefully eradicate this from his game. With his size and skill set, he has all the right tools, it is how he uses these tools which will decide his fate as a professional hockey player.

If everything goes well for Benning, I don't think there is any reason this guy shouldn't get top 4 and some powerplay minutes. He was given the opportunity last season and struggled a bit. But I believe moving into his third year as a NHL'er, he has good offensive instincts and possesses a good shot, something that could be useful on the 2nd powerplay unit in Edmonton. The play of Matt Benning could be a pivotal factor in the Oilers' upcoming season.

Andrej Sekera - $5.5 million cap hit

2016-17 - 80GP - 8G - 27A - 35P - +14 - 16PP points - 21:29 ATOI

2017-18 - 36GP - 0G - 8A - 8P - -15 - 2PP points - 16:20 ATOI

It is hard to believe that the Andrej Sekera we saw at the start of the 2016-17 campaign is the same we saw in the latter half of this past season. He was so solid two seasons ago. He played first powerplay unit for a good chunk of the season, was part of the steady and reliable second pair with Kris Russell, and was the Oilers most reliable two-way defenceman the majority of nights.

Well Ryan Getzlaf took a run at him early in game five of the playoffs in May of 2017, tearing his ACL. Creating a long and bumpy road to recovery for the Slovakian defender. I couldn't manage to get a clip of the hit, but it was late and cheap, something Getzlaf did a lot in the playoffs but never got a penalty for. Ah... an argument for another day.

Pre-injury Andrej Sekera was a valuable asset to the squad. Though he doesn't possess a heavy shot, and is not great at getting pucks through from the blue line, he was a smart player and knew when to take his chances. Check out this beauty from two seasons ago:

He also possesses that savvy veteran presence capable of making smart and effective passes (P.S. miss you Ebs):

The injury took a toll on Andrej, holding him out of the lineup until December 21st. By then, Oilers were desperate for some wins and probably rushed him back a little quicker into the lineup than originally anticipated. As he said in post-season interview "it was frustrating chasing the game". His mobility had gone by the wayside, and he just couldn't get to pucks or battle the way he could in previous years. Here is a clip of Sekera chasing down Manson on a rush:

This pretty much sums up Sekera's troubles this past season. The game was just too fast for him. Initially, he makes the wrong read going to the other side of the ice and losing coverage of his man. He then lacks the mobility and foot speed to recover. He is unable to get to Manson and he rips the puck over Talbot's shoulder. A healthy Sekera would most likely stay on his own side to begin with, but if he did need to recover he would have the skating abilities to take away Manson's angle or get a stick on the puck to deflect it away.

The decline in stats from two seasons ago to this recent one are a telling story. A massive drop in powerplay points, a disastrous plus/minus, and a significant decrease in average time on ice. It is no secret that the Oilers' highest paid blue liner struggled in his return to the lineup. The question is, can the aging veteran bounce back? It is hard to predict how a 32 year old will handle an injury like this. A summer of rest, rehabilitation, and training should hopefully improve different facets of his game. Much like Benning, and perhaps even more so, a great deal of the Oilers' success depends on if Sekera can come back and return to his old ways. I want to think he will be better than last season, but I don't think we will ever see the Andrej Sekera of the 2016-17 campaign again in his career.

Kris Russell - $4.0 million cap hit

2016-17 - 68GP - 1G - 12A - 13P - +5 - 21:13 ATOI

2017-18 - 78GP - 4G - 17A - 21P - -7 -19:04 ATOI

Though Russell's goals and assists improved over the last two years, his game struggled heavily. Chiarelli signed Russell to a 4 year $16 million dollar deal in the last offseason, a contract that has a lot of Oilers fans fuming. Russell's trademark ability is to block shots. He has led the league in this category in three of the last four seasons. He has also finished top three in the league over the past five seasons. Sounds like a positive thing, however a lot of it might be for the wrong reasons. Although a player like Russell is invaluable on the penalty kill, his game suffers at even strength. A prominent reason he blocks so many shots, is because he struggles incredibly at getting the puck out of his own zone. Looking at the top NHL defencemen in the game today, they are able to skate the puck out of trouble, evade forecheckers, and move the puck up accurately and quickly. These are all attributes Russell lacks. He rims the puck a lot, and usually takes his time moving the puck out of his own end, eventually leading to a turnover and possibly him blocking a shot.

Now, with all that being said, I do not mind Russell as a 5-6, third pair d-man. The problem is $4 million a year is way too much for a player in that position. I like the emotion and toughness he plays with, but I think he needs to understand his role on the team.

One secret to Russell's game is his offensive side. All of you analytics fans are going crazy right now, but bare with me. I'm telling you the guy has SOME offense to his game. His stats in junior in Medicine Hat proved he could be an offensive threat. He had back to back seasons of 29 and 34 points in Calgary a few years ago. He even had 21 points on the struggling Oilers squad from last season. I'm not saying he's like PK Subban or Brent Burns, or even Oscar Klefbom. A better comparison would be more like Dan Girardi, who has put up 20 points or more seven times in his career.

Don't believe me about Russell's offensive prowess? Take a look at a few of these clips:

Some of you right now are thinking "even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once and a while.." You may be right, but I think there are other factors that are holding him back from showing these offensive skills. I feel like McLellan has him on a tight leash, and he is a proud player that is going to respect and play the way the coaches ask of him. If the Oil have to turn to a run-and-gun game, there is no reason Trusty Rusty can't put up some points here and there. It is a matter of the coaching staff giving him this opportunity and Russell having the confidence to show his offensive side. If Klebom returns to form, Sekera and Nurse can chip in with offense, and Benning projects the way I mentioned, then there really is no need for Russell to be putting up a lot of points.

All of that being said, don't expect much from Russell. We have for him three more seasons, so get used to him blocking a lot of shots and rimming the puck in our own end. He is already a whipping boy for the analytics crew, and it is most likely only a matter of time before he is the whipping boy for all Oilers fans.

Ethan Bear - $720K cap hit, two way deal.

18GP - 1G - 3A - 4P - -11 - 2PP points - 18:38 ATOI

Ethan Bear is a very promising young player. We saw a snippet of his play in the final stretch of last season. He performed how many expected, wowing many in the offensive zone while struggling a bit in his own end. You can't blame the 21 year old, as making that jump to the NHL can be difficult, especially with a struggling team like the Oilers. Other than a couple healthy scratches late in the season, McLellan and the rest of the staff were not shy about giving Bear ample ice-time.

As for this upcoming season, Bear has a chance to crack the squad. He is going to have to prove he can be better in his own end, and can contribute on one of the powerplay units. I'd imagine he is going to focus heavily on his defensive game, and prove that he doesn't get walked around by guys like Brett Kulak...:

His offensive skills are impressive though. He has a great shot and solid offensive instincts. I think he can be a real fit on the powerplay, and it should be interesting to see where he fits in the lineup (or doesn't) once the dust settles. Wouldn't mind seeing this McDavid to Bear combination happening many more times in the future:

Whether Bear makes the team out of training camp or not, he will play some NHL games this season. The only question is how many games and what role will he play? Either way, Bear is an important player for the franchise in the future.

Kevin Gravel - $700K cap hit, two way deal

16GP - 0G - 3A - 3P - -3 - 14:02 ATOI

A depth signing by Chiarelli, Gravel was brought in to bolster the blue line. I believe management would rather have him in the 7th d-man spot as opposed to Bear, that way Bear can get the minutes he needs to develop in the AHL. Gravel is expected to be a sufficient 7th d-man who can PK and be relied upon to play 13-17 minutes a night. Even though he has put up decent numbers in the AHL with the Ontario Reign, don't expect any kind of offensive output from Gravel. Instead, he will be relied upon for a spare in case of injuries, and may even spend some time in the AHL if Bear or Bouchard turn some heads in September and October.

Evan Bouchard - $925K cap hit

This is a wild card amongst the defensive group. Many believe Bouchard is physically ready to play in the NHL. He has the skill set to do so as well. Where Bouchard needs work is his skating, compete level, and defensive game. He is the destined powerplay defenceman the Oil need, with impressive passing and a bomb from the point. However if his defense is a glaring concern Oil management will not hesitate to send him back to London. Many scouts say that his demeanor and lack of defensive awareness are going to be major issues. This video analyst talks about his lack of hockey sense and compete level. This person is very critical, however I think it should be noted that there are some areas of his game that need massive improvement.

So what to do with Bouchard? Send him back to London for a fourth consecutive season? He may not change his ways and continue to develop bad habits only worsening these issues in his game. Or keep him with the big club, where he will learn what it takes to be defensively responsible and begin to understand the ins and outs of a NHL player. I would not be surprised if he gets some games with the big club, but don't expect him to be around after the nine game stint he is allowed before burning a year of his entry-level contract.

The Oil have a track record of rushing their first round picks. Gagner, Hall, RNH, Yakupov, etc. Bouchard complicates the situation, as he is much bigger and more physically mature than those guys were at his age. Why rush him? Unless there was a massive hole on defence, or he was an absolute stud at training camp, I don't see why he would stick in Edmonton this year. Klefbom, Sekera, Benning, and even Bear can provide adequate offense from the blue line in the time being. All of that being said, I would look for Bouchard to be an important piece for the team in the 2019-20 season.

So my projected:

Klefbom - Larsson

Nurse - Benning

Sekera - Russell

Gravel

I hope Bear gets some games in as well.

Let's say that is the case for the Oilers' top 4 and Nurse's new contract comes in at a $3.5 million cap hit. With Benning's new contract, the combined salary of the top 4 comes in at $13.73 million. Half a million up from last season's combined top 4. This group will never be top ten in the NHL for combined points, they just cannot keep up with the likes of Nashville, Washington or Minnesota. If this d-core plays up to their potential, there is no reason they can't finish in the top half of the NHL. This would be very reasonable considering they have one of the less expensive groups in the league.

A Look Ahead:

A major problem with this current top 4, is you have $9.5 million dollars in cap going towards the third pair. A third pair that could be very underwhelming if Sekera cannot recover from his injury and Russell continues to struggle. After this season, both Sekera and Russell have their NMC lifted. Russell will submit a 10-team list and Sekera will submit a 15-team list in which they can be traded to. I would certainly look for one of these two players to get dealt. There are numerous players on the Oil roster that are going to need new contracts (Puljujarvi, Rieder, Khaira, Talbot) and by then there should be an emergence of Bear, Bouchard, and youngster Caleb Jones. Getting rid of either Russell's or Sekera's contract is going to be imperative for their cap flexibility and ultimate success of the franchise. Which one will go? This season will be telling. Russell is the obvious favorite, but if Sekera shows that the knee injury is too much of a problem moving forward, he might be the guy to go. Both contracts will likely be difficult to move with their relatively high cap hits. Both expire after the 2020-21 season.

Let me know what you guys think. Whether it be on the players, the top 4, comparisons around the league, or what the team will look like moving forward! @EdmOilersTalk

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